The five reasons why Putin might not launch a nuclear attack

 The five reasons why Putin might not launch a nuclear attack

It's like I'm watching a scene from a James Bond movie. At an event near Moscow, the president of Russia stands on a stage and is asked about the catastrophic apocalypse.The moderator on stage reminds Putin that he once predicted that Russians would go to heaven after a nuclear attack."We're in no rush to get there, are we?" the moderator asks hopefully.Then there is a long, awkward pause. Seven seconds of silence."Your silence bothers me," says the moderator. "That was the point," Putin replied with a laugh.Sorry for not laughing at that joke. This is not a scene from a big Hollywood movie that ultimately ends well.

The events of the past eight months have been a real-life drama that has left Ukraine with untold suffering and many believe the world is closer to nuclear conflict than it has been since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago.So how does this drama script go from here?Much depends on the answer to this question: How far is Vladimir Putin willing to go to ensure victory or defeat in Ukraine?If you re-read his speech to the nation on February 24th, after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, you can conclude that he will do whatever it takes:'And now some important - very important - words for those who may wish to intrude on what is going on. Those who try to get in our way or pose a threat to our country and our people must beware: Russia's response will be this. Instantly and it will have results that they have never seen in history.Putin's words "consequences you have never experienced in history" were widely interpreted by analysts outside Russia as threats of unforgivable nuclear war. And the noise continued over the coming months.In April, President Putin threatened that "anyone who tries to interfere and create a strategic threat against Russia will be met with a very strong response." We have all the weapons required for this.In September he added his infamous line: 'This is not an empty threat.'Last week, at the Valdai Discussion Club (where he appeared to be acting laughingly talking during that long and awkward pause), President Putin was sending mixed signals. In it, he has denied any intention to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.He said that there is no need for us (to use nuclear weapons). There is no political or military necessityhin.

The BBC's editor in Russia discusses several reasons why he tks a nuclear attack on Ukraine is unlikely.

But backstage at the Discussion Club, no one could escape the effects of rumors of nuclear attacks. Dmitry Soslov, a member of Russia's Foreign Policy and Defense Council, said there is a risk that Russia will use nuclear weapons. Not against Ukraine, but against the West. "If a single American missile were to hit any Russian military infrastructure inside Russia, we would take a historic leap toward apocalyptic nuclear annihilation." According to Russia's official nuclear doctrine, Russia will launch a strategic nuclear strike against the United States and all NATO allies as soon as possible."As soon as we see Western missiles fired at our soil, no matter how armed they are. Then the entire planet will be destroyed.Is this a warning statement? Of course it is.Is this a realistic scenario? I can't say that for sure.Leaving aside the long pauses in President Putin's speech (which were certainly meant to create a dramatic effect) and recent Russian rhetoric, I think that It is unlikely that the Kremlin is planning a nuclear war in Ukraine right now. Especially considering these five reasons.

1- US mid-term elections As the mid-term elections for Congress in the United States approach, the Kremlin will know that the Republican Party has an opportunity to gain control of Congress.Earlier this month, the leader of the opposition in the US Congress,

Kevin McCarthy, warned that if Republicans regained the majority, they would not write a 'blank check' for Ukraine.This statement is music to Putin's ears.While it's unclear whether a Republican victory would significantly affect U.S. aid to Ukraine, the Kremlin would welcome any opportunity to reduce U.S. military aid to Qiu. 2- Winter in Europe Vladimir Putin appears to be calculating that cold weather will worsen Europe's energy and inflation crisis after Russia severely cuts off gas supplies to Europe, forcing Western governments to clash with the Kremlin. They would be forced to make a deal, meaning they would cut back on support for Ukraine in exchange for access to Russian energy.

So far, Europe appears to be better prepared for winter than Moscow expected.October was colder than usual and increased supplies of liquefied natural gas meant that reserves had improved and gas prices in Europe were lower.But if the temperature drops, then the pressure to obtain energy may also increase. Especially in Ukraine where the Russian military is attacking its infrastructure. 3- Public announcement of military recruitment In recent times we have seen Vladimir Putin move towards mobilizing the entire Russian economy and industry for his 'special military operations' needs.In many ways it feels as if the entire country is in the grip of preparations for a protracted war. A sign, perhaps, that the Kremlin is now preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine.

4- Mutually Assured Destruction This principle of the Cold War is still valid today. It is assumed that if atomic bombs are used by one rival, the other will retaliate and thus cause widespread destruction on both sides and everyone will die.There are no winners in a nuclear war. Putin is aware of this fact.All of this is based on the premise that it would be logical to assume that no nuclear weapons would be used in the Ukraine war.But of course there is a problem. Logic disappears here on February 24, and wars do not necessarily follow the rules of logical progression of situations.If the Cuban Missile Crisis has taught the world one thing, it's how miscalculations and miscommunications can suddenly bring the planet to the brink of destruction. 5- Expecting good news suddenly A Russian reservist says goodbye to his family on October 1 in the Leningrad regionPutin's 'special operation' did not go according to Russia's plan.

What should have taken a few days or a few weeks at most has already taken months. The Kremlin appears to have completely underestimated Ukrainian resistance, Western support for Kiev and the tsunami of international sanctions facing Russia. Despite initially being assured that only 'professional soldiers' would fight, President Putin announced 'partly public conscription'. First, Russian forces have been withdrawing from occupied territories in recent weeks due to Ukraine's retaliation.But Putin rarely admits mistakes. For now, he seems determined to continue the battle and emerge with something he can call a victory.